Yardbarker Horiz

2012 NFL Draft Countdown

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

2011 Projected Draft Needs

With the end of the season drawing near it's time to slowly start ramping up the offseason.  While all eyes are focused on the labor issue, as well it should be, Tampa Bay will still be working on molding the youngest team in the NFL into a perennial playoff team.


Just after the 2010 draft last spring I posted projections on what the Buccaneers might be looking for heading into the 2011 draft.  It's as good a place to start with the 2011 offseason as any, so let's get it started.


To project the needs for the 2011 draft we'll take a look at the young core offensive and young core defensive positional rosters.


Offense


A lot of young talent has found it's way onto the offensive line during the season this year due to injuries to long term starters like G Davin Joseph, T Jeremy Trueblood, and C Jeff Faine.  This influx of youth offsets the transition out of the young core by T Donald Penn (along with Joseph and Trueblood).  This may remove the impending need for offensive linemen as noted last Spring.  The question, however, is if these young players are of the caliber needed to compete year in and year out in the NFL, or were they players who filled in admirably but do not have the raw skills and talents the coaching staff is looking for.  The offensive line will be a long-running theme throughout the offseason.


Another possible need could be Tight End.  With 2010 draftee Eric Lorig moving to fullback (or will he?), there are two young Tight Ends on the roster:  Ryan Purvis and Nathan Overbay, both promoted from the practice squad during the 2010 season in that order.  Are either or both of these young men the long term replacments for Kellen Winslow and John Gilmore?  We'll find out this offseason.


The offensive backfield and wide receiver groups appear to be in great shape with youth, talent, and production.  It was clear over a year ago the quarterback position was solid for the next couple years (and isn't it nice not wondering what free agent QB may show up next season?).  These are all positions which just need to stay together and grow with experience.


Defense


The 2010 draft was defense-heavy, and many of those players saw the field and were contributing in 2010.  Last season, a lot of talent was brought in on the waiver wire at the defensive end and defensive back positions.  And while two of the defensive ends cracked the starting lineup at various times this season (Michael Bennett and Tim Crowder both were 2009 waiver wire pickups), most of the defensive backs did not.  However, the 2010 draft supplemented the defensive backfield very nicely.  Both end and safety seem to be stable.


A superior cornerback is hard to find in the NFL. There are only a handful of elite corners in any given draft. Equally valuable is elite speed at defensive end.  
Top-flight talent at these positions are rare, and so are worth the first round pick (even a Top 5 pick) if the right player is available regardless of team needs.  Corner and Defensive End are always on the mind in round one.


And what to do with Tanard Jackson, a young man with some personal issues and less and less time on the field?


That leaves linebacker, and while there are plenty of bodies there, the current organization has not brought in many players to compete at the linebacker positions.  Are they happy with what they have?  Were they just more concerned with "up front" to this point?  The defense did have six second-half shutouts this past season and there is youth and production in this group, so it may not be a necessity this year.  But can you wait until Quincy Black, Adam Hayward, and Geno Hayes complete their careers together?  The biggest hint for linebacker being a possibility for the 2011 draft may be the fact the Buccaneers made a waiver wire play for Shawn Merriman during the 2010 season.


There are plenty of spots in Tampa Bay for fresh, young talent to mesh with the current roster.  The key will be trying to figure out what pieces will be available (and when) for the Buccaneers in the 2011 NFL Draft.

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Young Core Defense Is Flush With Youth


To build a team through the draft means to build a nucleus of young players and allow them to mature and gain experience through rotation during the season.  You need to find youth which is talented enough to get into a positional rotation or youth which can develop on the coverage teams and find it's way into the rotation later.

Knowing this, it makes sense to find draft needs by looking at the young core of players instead of the current starting lineup.  If the starting lineup has a need, free agency is probably the right place to look since experience is needed immediately.  In the case of the 2010 Tampa Bay Buccaneers young players need more experience (i.e. the rebuilding process means creating depth across the board).  The status of the rebuilding process can also be measured by looking at the young core.

To build this chart of the Young Core Defense, I took the most recent Buccaneers team depth chart and roster (both of which have been a moving target all year) and placed all the defensive players with four years of experience or less (because the average NFL player has a 3.5 year career).  I ignored players on the practice squad as they are under a less-binding contract structure.  This provides a glimpse of the "core" of the defense (players listed in order of years of NFL experience)


LCB  Talib, Aqib (3); Biggers, E.J. (2); Johnson, DJ (2)
LDE  White, Stylez (4); Bennett, Michael (2); Gilbeaux, Brandon (0)
2DT  Miller, Roy (2); Price, Brian (0)
3DT  Okam, Frank (3); McCoy, Gerald (0); Woods, Al (0)
WLB  Hayes, Geno (3); McKenzie, Tyrone (2)
MLB  Hayward, Adam (4)
SLB  Black, Quincy (4); Watson, Dekoda (0)
RDE  Crowder, Tim (4); Moore, Kyle (2); Magee, Alex (2); Johnson, George (0)
RCB  Mack, Elbert (3); Lewis, Myron (0)
SS  Harris, Dominique (0); Asante, Larry (0)
FS  Jackson, Tanard (4); Lynch, Corey (3); Grimm, Cody (0)
K  Barth, Connor(3)

The constant influx of young players to this side of the ball in 2010 has created a very healthy looking chart for the offseason.

We'll use this information for our analysis leading up to the 2011 NFL Draft.

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Injured Reserve Brimming With Talent

With just two weeks remaining in the 2010 season, the Buccaneers have amassed one-fourth of a regular season roster on their Injured Reserve.  The 13 players on the Injured Reserve list are:


50Alston, JonLBRES6'0"2356/4/19835Stanford
58Black, QuincyOLBRES6'2"2402/28/19844New Mexico
69Dotson, DemarTRES6'9"31510/11/19852Southern Mississippi
52Faine, JeffCRES6'3"2914/6/19818Notre Dame
72Gilbeaux, BrandonDERES6'3"2706/9/19870Delaware
35Grimm, CodyFSRES6'1"2032/26/19870Virginia Tech
32Huggins, KareemRBRES5'9"1985/24/19861Hofstra
75Joseph, DavinGRES6'3"31311/22/19835Oklahoma
93McCoy, GeraldDTRES6'4"2952/25/19880Oklahoma
94Moore, KyleDERES6'5"27210/25/19862USC
92Price, BrianDTRES6'1"3034/10/19890UCLA
25Talib, AqibCBRES6'1"2052/13/19863Kansas
36Jackson, TanardFSSUS6'0"2007/21/19854Syracuse

Black, Faine, Joseph, McCoy, Moore, Talib, and Jackson were opening day starters.  Grimm replaced Jackson when he was suspended by the NFL.  Huggins had started getting carries when he was injured versus New Orleans.  Price had started to earn more snaps on defense.  Alston, Dotson, and Gilbeaux went on IR before the first snap of 2010.

These 13 will be added to the end of season 53-man roster along with the 8 men on the practice squad resulting in 74 players on the offseason roster.  This means there will be only 6 open spots remaining on the offseason 80-man roster -- and a complete slate of 7 men coming in the 2011 draft.

It will be another interesting offseason!