College Free Agency Could Start Sunday

It's going to become an event Buccaneers fans look forward to every year.

Each year, around 250 college football players are drafted by the NFL.  Given there are around 110 Division I (not to mention Divisions II and III, plus other smaller college affiliations) schools with anywhere from 5-25 players completing their college careers each year, that's 250 picks from a potential pool of well over 25,000 players, or just about 1%.

The other 99% gets one last chance at the dream through college free agency (well, not the absolute last shot, but getting pretty far down the line).  This is when the 32 NFL teams can descend upon the remaining college talent pool and dig deep, look for long shots, or find a diamond in the rough.

Undrafted talent currently resides on the Tampa Bay roster in the persons of Kregg Lumpkin and Ryan Purvis (undrafted in 2009) as well as George Johnson, Derek Hardman, and LeGarrette Blount (all undrafted in 2010).

If the players can get the NFLPA Union back together in the next day or so the league can get the process of signing these players underway.

And Buccaneer fans will get a new glimpse of the future!

Rookies Should Get To Camp On Time

It appears the new collective bargaining agreement, which may be put into effect before the end of the week, will contain a provision the NFL owners were looking for:  a rookie salary structure.

This is important to owners as it keeps high draft picks from consuming a large chunk of cap money when it is not clear how the player will adapt to the league.  Gone will be the days of a fresh-out-of-college quarterback getting a bigger paycheck than those quarterbacks in the NFL wearing super bowl rings.

The details will not be known until everything has a bow on it, but some things will be hard to include.  There will most likely be some personal conduct verbiage standard, but performance incentives would be hard to mandate.  Also, signing bonuses may not be hard numbers and may have associated ranges or conditions.

In any case, the fact that much is predetermined should allow teams to shorten the time it takes to get draft picks under contract.  And should everything come together this week, it will be important to get rookies in front of coaches as soon as possible.

In a year without a summer, a rookie salary structure could help get the season underway quickly.

Post-2011 Draft Young Core Offense

To build this chart of the Young Core Offense, I took the most recent Buccaneers roster and sorted all the offensive players with four years of experience or less (because the average NFL player has a 3.5 year career) by position, then by years of experience (in parenthesis).  This provides a glimpse of the "core" of the offense -- these are the players who will determine Tampa Bay's playoff fortunes for the next four years or so:

2011 Draft Choices are in bold italics and some position assignments are a best guess.

QB:  Josh Johnson (3), Josh Freeman (2), Rudy Carpenter (2)
RB:  Kareem Huggins (2), LeGarrette Blount (1), Allen Bradford (0)
FB:  Kregg Lumpkin (2), Erik Lorig (1)

XWR:  Micheal Spurlock (4), Mike Williams (1), Dezmon Briscoe (1), Ed Gant (1)
YWR:  Sammie Stroughter (2), Arrelious Benn (1), Preston Parker (1)
TE:  Ryan Purvis (2), Nathan Overbay (1), Luke Stocker (0), Daniel Hardy (0)

RT:  James Lee (3), Marc Dile (1)
RG: Derek Hardman (1), Brandon Carter (1)
C:  Jeremy Zuttah (3)
LG:  Ted Larsen (1), John Malecki (1)
LT:  Demar Dotson (2), Barker, Will (1)

LS:
P:  Robert Malone (1)

GM Mark Dominik added his third running back in three drafts to this board, keeping that pipeline full (and adding some heft).  The tight end position is the oldest on the team and was in need of young talent -- can Kellen Winslow and John Gilmore give these young players time to mature?

The influx of offensive linemen from the waiver wire last season assures Tampa Bay when their current, aging offensive line starts to tap out there will be someone there to step in.  With LG Davin Joeseph, C Jeff Faine, and RT Donald Penn under hefty contracts, it's interesting that Tampa Bay did not draft along the offensive line this season.  Partly, that could be a matter of who was (or was not) available.  It may also be a gamble on the part of Dominik, who may think the new collective bargaining agreement (whenever completed, post-lockout) will look similar to the prior CBA, allowing him to use franchise tags and matching offers to keep his veteran line in place in front of Josh Freeman.  It could be a solid one-year gamble: with Ted Larsen at the front of the line at left guard and James Lee ascending to the starting position at right tackle last season Dominik may be able to sign some "final contracts" or, if need be, trim some cost from the roster.  Youth is on the doorstep up front.

It's not even worth talking about the wide receiver talent on this team.  Anything I could say would fall short anyway.  This is as exciting a group as there is anywhere in the NFL and expectations should remain high for years to come.  These guys can deliver.

And, of course, quarterback is rock solid.

The one thing the Buccaneers may be looking for is a long snapper, but most likely can grow one from within the current squad of offensive linemen.

29 men represented on this roster.  In some places, depth of only two young players works out fine.  In others, such as wide receiver, the competition will be fierce at a very high level.  This is exactly what Dominik and Head Coach Raheem Morris have been talking about since day 1: put young talent on the field, let them compete, and carve out a team each week of the top performers.

Looks like the offense is right where it should be.

Post-2011 Draft Young Core Defense

One way to gage the rebuilding process in Tampa Bay is to look at the young core players who have been selected to make the Buccaneers defense a dominant squad. It's a group that is getting more and more talent through the draft.


To build this chart of the Young Core Defense, I took the most recent Buccaneers roster and sorted out all the defensive players with four years of experience or less (because the average NFL player has a 3.5 year career) by position, then by years of NFL experience (in parenthesis).  This provides a glimpse of the young "core" of the defense -- the players who will determine if the Tampa Bay Buccaneer make the playoffs during the next five years or so.

2011 Draft Choices are in bold italics and some position assignments are a best guess.

Defense

LDE  Stylez White (4), Michael Bennett (2), Brandon Gilbeaux(0), Da'Quan Bowers (0)

2DT  Miller, Roy (2), Price, Brian (0)

3DT  Okam, Frank (3), McCoy, Gerald (0), Woods, Al (0)

RDE  Tim Crowder (4), Kyle Moore (2), Alex Magee (2); George Johnson (0), Adrian Clayborn (0)

WLB  Geno Hayes (3), Tyrone McKenzie (2)

MLB  Adam Hayward (4), Mason Foster (0)

SLB  Quincy Black (4), Dekoda Watson (0)

LCB  Aqib Talib (3), E.J. Biggers (2), D.J. Johnson (2), Vince Anderson (1)

RCB  Elbert Mack (3), Myron Lewis (0), Anthony Gaitor (0)

SS  Dominique Harris (0), Larry Asante (0), Ahmad Black (0)

FS  Tanard Jackson (4), Corey Lynch (3), Cody Grimm (0)

K  Connor Barth (3)


As expected, the 2011 draft filled in this chart quite cleanly, including possibly filling the need at inside linebacker.

There are 34 men listed here -- a very large number of young defensive players for any offseason roster.  This chart demonstrates the Buccaneers will have to continue to rely on youth for the next season or two.  The hope would be for the bulk of these men to continue on after their fourth year (become a "second contract" player), which would thicken the depth chart and reduce the number of young players, but mean established, experienced NFL players are leading the way.  Are White, Crowder, Hayward, Black, or Jackson players who are valuable enough to this team to make that transition?  Or will they be players signed to short term contracts while others here mature?


It's a big group with a lot of talent (six Tampa Bay draft picks on the defensive line alone) and should be improved next season just on the basis of another year under their belts.  Long term, however, it should be getting harder and harder to crack this unit.


If not, the Buccaneer Defense could be a young group for a long time.

Combine 2011: The GM Speaks

With the 2011 Combine in the books, it's time to look for relevant information we can use to figure out who is on the radar at One Buccaneer Place and why.

A great start is listening to Tampa Bay GM Mark Dominik from NFL Network on 2/26/2011:

Mark Dominik 2011 Combine Press Conference (Video)

Significant quotes:

• @1m 10s:  "It is a good offensive line year . . . It's talented in offensive line, specifically at the tackle spot"
• @2m 30s: "We're going to let the draft come to us . . . I like where we're at . . . it's been an active spot for trades . . . a good spot to possibly pull a deal if you want to."
• @5m 17s: "When you look at the Packers now and where they're at in terms of age but what they just accomplished this year, certainly, again, it gives you another blueprint to say we're going in the right direction in our beliefs"
• @7m 41s : "Mike Williams led all rookies in receiving yardage and catches; LeGarrette Blount led all rookies in rushing, and Josh Freeman is younger than both of them.  He's just touching what he can become . . ."
• @ 8m 5s : "We're going to use the draft and stay true to our board; and make sure we take the best player that can help us.  And it may not be the position that everybody thinks we're supposed to take first, but it will be the best one we think can help our football team."

The video is 9 minutes long and well worth a watch.